- BTC’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric confirmed the ongoing bullish rally.
- At its current price, BTC might be overvalued and might experience a pullback.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has reached its Optimistic phase, indicating that the prevailing sentiment is more bullish, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Gaah noted in a recent report.
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BTC’s NUPL metric functions as a good gauge of market sentiment as it measures the overall profitability of coin holders. When the NUPL value is above zero, it indicates that BTC holders are in profit. Conversely, a value below zero indicates that most holders are at a loss.
At 0.399 at press time, the leading coin’s NUPL rallied above the zero line on 15 October, when BTC began its uptrend. Since then, the coin’s value has increased by 31%, data from CoinMarketCap showed.
With growing bullish sentiments, Gaah noted:
“The indicator is now approaching 0.5+ (Belief – Denial Phase [Orange]), a level that has historically indicated market tops.”
The analyst added that euphoria might set in once the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “If this happens later this year, the price could hit its last historical high again,” Gaah opined.
The coin’s last historical high was $68,789.63, which was reached on 10 November 2021.
A retracement in sight?
At press time, the leading crypto exchanged hands at $34,063. Price movements assessed on a daily chart hinted at the possibility of a slight retracement in the coming days.
Firstly, the coin’s key momentum indicators were positioned at overbought highs at press time. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI), which track the coin’s trading momentum, were 82.63 and 84.36, respectively, as of this writing.
At these values, there is a high probability of a pullback or reversal in the near future. Moreso, an assessment of the Spent Output Profit Ratio for both short and long-term BTC holders revealed that both cohorts of investors currently hold at a profit. They might become incentivized to sell their holdings to cash in those profits. This might result in a price drawback.
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Likewise, BTC’s price sat above the upper band of its Bollinger Bands indicator at press time.
When an asset’s price trades in this manner, it means that the asset is trading above its average price and that volatility is high. It often signals that the coin is overvalued and that a pullback is likely.