Bitcoin [BTC] has been oscillating around $83k-$85k since the price dipped into this area on Wednesday, the 23rd of September. The 4-day consolidation came after a strong push from $76k to $87k last week.
Such compression in volatility generally indicates another strong move was building up. Where will the next impulse move go? Here are some clues on whether swing traders and investors expect a deeper retracement or a bullish continuation.
Uptober aligns with Bitcoin’s regime shift
In a post on X, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that October has been a historically bullish month. Out of the previous 13 years, 10 of them have seen gains for Bitcoin.
Moreover, September, a historically bearish month, was about to end bullishly too. This could power a stronger October, or the “Uptober” seasonal effect as BTC transitions to a bullish regime.
Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges and nearly $3 billion in spot ETF inflows within ten days also signaled strong demand and bullish sentiment.
The Adjusted MVRV 30DMA/365DMA ratio crossed above its own 365-day moving average on the 20th of August. This crossover marked an early bull market transition, noted crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.
The ratio climbed above the 1.0 baseline on the 20th of September, marking a regime shift from early bull market to bull market. This was the sixth early bull-to-bull regime transition since 2012.
Four of the five latest such crossovers saw the bull phase end with Bitcoin prices higher than the entry price of the regime shift.
The one exception was August 2015, when the bull market ended 16 days after its start and the BTC market fell back into early bull territory.
The warning sign for Bitcoin
The recent rally saw unrealized profit margins reach 33%, the highest since December 2024. Profit-taking selling spiked to 25.7k BTC, the highest in 2026.
Analyst Julio Moreno noted that these factors were typical of a rally losing steam and at risk of a deeper correction.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin-adjusted MVRV scores showed an early bull market phase for a month, which transitioned to a bull regime a week ago.
- The spike in profit-taking and unrealized profit margins at their highest since December 2024 were warning signs of a possible BTC correction, deeper than the past week.
